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The Way This Bizarre Campaign Shattered the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mold.
Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.
On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest upset.
Yet the current race is fundamentally different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.
Below is how the projected ballot could shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record
Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.
The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.
Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!
The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4
Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.
What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.
The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.
After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.
The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.
3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.
Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.
Still
Cynthia Jones
Elara is a productivity coach and writer passionate about helping others optimize their workflows through smart note-taking techniques.
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